The global economy has shown economic resilience, reflected in a positive projection for oil demand worldwide, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on 27 May.
“For 2024, oil demand growth is at 2.2mbbl/d [million barrels per day], with total global demand anticipated to average 104.5mbbl/d,” he said during a special session of the 141st meeting of the Economic Commission Board (ECB).
He added that for 2025, the global oil demand growth forecast shows a further robust expansion of 1.8mbbl/d year-on-year (YOY), averaging 106.3mbbl/d.
According to OPEC’s most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the global economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.
In the US, still the world’s largest economy, growth for 2024 and 2025 was rising slightly, to 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively.
The Eurozone’s economic growth forecast remains at 0.5% for 2024, rising to 1.2% for 2025. Meanwhile, Japan’s forecast is also unchanged at 0.8% in 2024, rising fractionally and 1% in 2025.
China, with the world’s second-largest economy, saw its growth forecast remain at 4.8% in 2024, dipping slightly to 4.6% in 2025, the report said.
India’s forecast is unchanged at 6.6% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025. Brazil remains at 1.6% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025.
Russia’s economic growth for 2024, even under the weight of numerous international sanctions, was also slightly upward to 2.3% while the forecast for 2025 remains at 1.4%.
The policymaking group, currently restricting market supply as per the OPEC+ agreement with several non-OPEC producers spearheaded by Russia, restated the organisation's projections in MOMR.
OPEC continues to express optimism regarding global oil demand, even with continuing market concerns about fluctuating demand and the possible effects of increased interest rates on oil consumption.
The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 remains unchanged at 2.2mbbl/d from last month's assessment.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) anticipates an increase of almost 0.3mbbl/d this year, with growth estimated at 0.1mbbl/d YOY.
