The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has highlighted concerns over the pace of new gas production and infrastructure development, which is crucial for the energy transition.

Despite a slightly improved short-term outlook for Australia's east coast gas market, with a surplus forecast for 2025 and 2026, the overall domestic gas supply is facing a long-term decline. Additionally, there is uncertainty about future investments in the sector.

The southern states, already experiencing seasonal shortfalls, are reliant on gas transported from Queensland and may need to import gas to meet demand beyond the short term.

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said: “Our current projections indicate the potential for structural gas shortfalls on the east coast from 2027 unless supply increases or demand decreases.”

Continued domestic gas supply is important to mitigate risks to energy security and market stability, which could arise from over-reliance on international liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets.

A proposed gas market system plan could identify and coordinate necessary gas investments, akin to the Integrated System Plan for electricity, suggests an ACCC report.

The latest projections estimate a surplus of 77–112 petajoules (PJ) of gas for the east coast this year, with a forecast surplus of 54–99PJ in 2026. These figures reflect the redistribution of contracted export volumes to off-peak periods and increased gas production in Queensland.

Gas swap arrangements have been instrumental in these shifts, allowing LNG producers to supply more gas domestically during peak winter demand and purchase gas in other periods to fulfil reshaped export commitments.

The ACCC warns that retailing could become more challenging due to projected supply shortfalls, infrastructure constraints, and uncertainty in regulations and policies.

To promote better retail practices, the ACCC plans to publish best practice guidance on retail selling practices in 2026 and will monitor retailers’ adoption of this guidance in future Gas Inquiry reports.

The ACCC has been directed by the Australian Government to conduct an inquiry into natural gas supply and demand in Australia until 2030.