The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecasted that US net crude oil imports will fall by 20% in 2025 to 1.9mbbl/d, the lowest level since 1971.
This forecast is attributed to an increase in US oil production and a decline in refinery demand.
The EIA’s December short-term energy outlook (STEO) anticipates that the US will produce 13.52mbbl/d of oil in 2025, a slight rise from 13.24mbbl/d in 2024.
US refiners are expected to process 16mbbl/d of crude oil in 2025, a reduction of 200,000 barrels per day compared with 2024, Reuters reported.
The decrease in refinery runs is partly attributed to a reduction in US refinery capacity, which is expected to also lower crude oil net imports in 2025.
Kpler Americas lead oil analyst Matt Smith said: “With refinery retirements already announced and rising production, fewer imported barrels will be needed while exports are likely to tick higher with greater crude availability.”
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By GlobalDataPhillips 66 announced in October plans to shut down its significant Los Angeles-area oil refinery by the end of next year. Similarly, LyondellBasell Industries detailed its previously announced plan to permanently close its Houston refinery in 2025.
These closures are indicative of the broader trend affecting US refinery capacity and, consequently, net crude oil imports.
The incoming administration’s trade policies could further impact crude oil imports.
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed imposing a 25% import tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, which ‘could further crimp imports into the US’, according to Smith.
In terms of global oil demand, the EIA expects a slight decrease from its previous forecast of 104.4mbbl/d to average around 104.3mbbl/d in 2025. Global oil output is also projected to average 104.2mbbl/d in 2025, down from the prior forecast of 104.7mbbl/d.
The EIA has revised its price forecasts, and now expects spot Brent crude prices to average $73.58/bbl in 2025, a decrease from its previous forecast of $76.06/bbl.
US West Texas Intermediate spot prices are projected to average $69.12/bbl in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of $71.6/bbl.
