The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates that the country’s crude oil and natural gas production will reach record levels this year, along with demand for natural gas and electricity.
In its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO) report, the agency projects significant growth in energy output and consumption over the next few years.
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According to Reuters, the EIA expects crude oil production to average 13.61 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in 2025, with a further increase to 13.76mbbl/d in 2026.
These figures represent an uptick from the 13.22mbbl/d forecast in 2024.
Notably, the projection for 2025 exceeds the previous month’s estimate of 13.5mbbl/d.
The report also indicates that domestic petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption is set to rise, reaching 20.5mbbl/d in 2025 and 20.6mbbl/d in 2026, up from 20.3mbbl/d in 2024.
This consumption level approaches the record high of 20.8mbbl/d set in 2005.
In terms of natural gas, the EIA projects that dry gas production will increase from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2024 to 105.2bcf/d in 2025, and then 107.5bcf/d in 2026.
This forecast surpasses the previous record of 103.6bcf/d in 2023.
The EIA also estimates that domestic gas consumption will reach new heights, climbing from a record 90.4bcf/d in 2024 to 92.0bcf/d in 2025, before slightly declining to 91.1bcf/d in 2026.
Electricity demand in the US is expected to follow a similar upward trend, with the EIA predicting record consumption levels in 2025 and 2026.
The growth is attributed to increased electricity usage in data centres, homes and businesses, particularly for heating and transportation.
Power demand is projected to rise to 4.22 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025 and 4.28 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2026, up from a record 4.1 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024.
In October 2024, the EIA reported that crude oil and oil product flows through the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern choke point of the Red Sea, dropped by more than 50% in the first eight months of 2024.
