The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its 2024 oil growth forecast by 7.2% to 900,000bpd, a decrease of 70,000bpd from a previous estimate.
The IEA made the decision to publish the report on Thursday after oil demand increased at its slowest rate since 2022 in H1 2024, highlighting China’s declining oil demand as the cause.
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In the report, the IEA explained that global oil demand only increased by 800,000bpd in H1 2024, compared with 2.3mbpd over the same period in 2023.
As one of the world’s leading consumers and importers of oil, and the second-largest economy, China’s oil demand decreasing has created globally weaker demand for the fuel.
Multiple macroeconomic factors, weak consumer spending, a property sector crisis and increasing unemployment, as well as a higher uptake of electric vehicles in the country, has led the IEA to expect Chinese demand to only increase by 180,000bpd for the rest of 2024.
The report said: “With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese oil demand growth, and only modest increases or declines in most other countries, current trends reinforce our expectation that global demand will plateau by the end of this decade.”
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By GlobalDataThe IEA did not amend its demand growth forecast for 2025 this month, keeping it at 950,000bpd.
However, the agency did suggest that the global oil market could suffer issues of oversupply if the OPEC+ producer group continues with plans to unwind output cuts.
