The Vaca Muerta formation is central to YPF’s strategy to transform Argentina into a key energy exporter. Credit: FOTOGRIN/Shutterstock.

Argentina’s state oil company, YPF, forecasts an increase in shale oil production of 30–40% for the coming year with a focus on capital investments in the Vaca Muerta formation.

The Vaca Muerta formation is reputed to be one of the world’s largest shale reserves and central to YPF’s strategy to transform Argentina into a key energy exporter.

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YPF CEO Horacio Marin stated “We expect to increase unconventional production from 30–40%, our incremental production will be in that range, that is why we can achieve our average of 160,000 barrels (per day) in the first quarter.”

Marin suggested that these projections could be on the conservative side.

In Q3, YPF reported a 36% increase in unconventional oil production to 126,000bpd compared with the same period last year, surpassing Q2 production by 11%, reported Reuters.

This surge in unconventional oil has compensated for the decline in conventional oil production, bringing YPF’s total average to 256,000bpd.

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Natural gas production also saw a rise, growing by 4% from Q2 and 7.3% from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to the completion of the first stage of a gas pipeline connecting Vaca Muerta to Buenos Aires.

The company reported profit of $1.48bn in Q3, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations of $312m, as per London Stock Exchange data. This profit boost is due to increased output and higher oil and natural gas prices.

Looking ahead, YPF is actively pursuing partnerships with major oil companies to build a liquefied natural gas plant in Rio Negro, aiming to facilitate exports to European and Asian markets.

Marin added that YPF is on track to achieve neutral cash flow by 2025 and expects to turn cash flow positive in 2026.