As Ukraine heads into winter, the war-ravaged nation could see a substantial shortfall in its electricity supply as attacks on its energy infrastructure take their toll.
According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report, the shortfall may end up being as large as 6GW, or a third of the expected overall demand.
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Throughout the conflict with Russia, which has now been raging for well over two years, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been consistently targeted by Russian forces.
Over the summer Ukraine’s generation capacity fell by more than 2GW below peak demand of 12GW.
The agency said that this winter, peak electricity demand could increase to 18.5GW, leaving a deficit of 6GW, even after repairs to infrastructure and increasing energy imports from neighbouring countries.
In mid-August, Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest oil producer, announced 16 tenders seeking to buy gas generator sets totalling 76.4MW of capacity, according to local media reports, as a way to help stabilise supplies.
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By GlobalDataThe IEA said it is possible that Ukraine could meet its own energy demands if the winter is mild, but a cold winter will increase the need for imports and more internal production.
Ukraine’s gas supply transit deal with Gazprom finishes at the end of this year, a deal which Ukraine will not renew.
The agency has also given Ukraine an series of steps it needs to take tackle the problems.
These include bolstering the physical security and cybersecurity of energy infrastructure, speeding up the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs, and moving towards a decentralised power supply.
